It seems not. It looks like the presence of anti-gay-marriage initiatives on the ballots of 11 states did not increase Bush turnout any more than they increased Kerry turnout, if they were responsible for increased turnout at all. Political scientist Joseph M. Knippenberg has a helpful treatment of the issues. David Brooks offers a similar (but less data rich) approach in the New York Times (requires mildly annoying but worthwhile registration).
If Bush and his main strategists are smart (and they seem to be), they will continue tacking back toward the tolerant middle of the political spectrum, as the president started to do before the election when he endorsed civil unions for gay couples in an interview on ABC: “I don’t think we should deny people rights to a civil union, a legal arrangement, if that’s what a state chooses to do.”
Tom,
Thanks for these -as usual- excellent and level-headed comments. I hope Andrew Sullivan reads your site.
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. Martin Luther King Jr. (1929 – 1968),