The Future of Iraq

I have an essay in the latest issue of Reason magazine on the future of Iraq, along with Michael Young and Leon Hadar.



3 Responses to “The Future of Iraq”

  1. Tom, I’ve read your piece and it was very informative. As you know it is very hard to get the real skinny of what’s happening from MSM.

    I applaud your and your fellow co-workers efforts in spreading the message of liberty. I can only imagine the great difficulty it is to teach or explain the idea of liberty to a people that has no tradition in such a concept.

    However, I respectfully disagree with you on your first two points in your article. Please do not connect my disageements with your efforts to spread the message of liberty–this I totally agree with. My difference in opinion results from looking into a diffrent set of bifocals. My reasons follows.

    1. Tom: ” Anyone who is certain about how things are going to turn out doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”

    –This is not necessarily true. The nature of mankind has been consistent throughout human history. It is natural for humans to travel the path of least resistance. The human nature has an inate tendency to pursue self-interest or selfish interest. Making sacrafices that will benefit the public as a whole are done by exceptional individuals.

    It will take an exceptional cast of Iraqis to convince the entire country of Iraq to adopt the western idea of Libertarianism. Unfortunately, at this time, liberty minded Iraqis are few and far in between. It will take tens of years for a sizeable community of liberty minded Iraqis to come to fruition. I am afraid the American people and government are not going to stick around that long. Also, it will be very difficult to establish
    a liberal democracy when the Iraqis are surrounded by hostile governments and agents already undermining the efforts now.

    You are right when you say Iraq’s future cannot be predicted. However, I can safely say that Iraq will not be a liberal democracy today, tomorrow, next week, a month from now, six months from now, a year from now, or when US forces leave. In my opinion the American Experiment was a one shot deal. It can be envied, but not reincarnated.

    2. Tom: “The war being fought in Iraq is unlike any other.”

    —False evidence, trumped up charges, political mischief, misinformation, communist oppression or dictatorial oppression, no WMDs, liberation, no front lines, unseen enemy, booby traps, ambushes, friendly fire, collateral damage, civilian casualties, cannot distinguish friendly Afghans or Iraqis from foes, surrounding countries providing support and refuge, body counts, public support waning, Jimi Hendrix’s song “machine gun” playing in the back ground, and lots more.

    I believe I’ve seen and heard this before somewhere.

    Anyway, Tom, I very much support your efforts in educating about and encouraging to embrace liberty. However, I don’t see Iraqis or Afghanis or most of the Muslim world to enthused about it.

  2. Tom G. Palmer

    Tony’s points are well taken, but I think that he somewhat missed mine.

    1. Yes, I agree that the outcome of a constitutionally limited government governed by liberal (or libertarian) principles is extremely unlikely. My point is that there is no obviously dominant outcome among all the others, either. The situation is too complex to predict.

    2. Yes, the war being fought in Iraq is also like the others — innocent people are killed, for example. What I was focusing on was the way in which it is unlike the others, and that is in the philosophy of pure destructionism that motivates one major faction. The comparisons that have been made by others are to WWII (Condoleeza Rice) and to Vietnam (Ted Kennedy and others). In neither case was the U.S. fighting an enemy that wanted mayhem for its own sake, or for the entire region to erupt in cataclysmic civil wars. In that sense, the war in Iraq is unlike any other in which the U.S. has been engaged.