Proconsul Paddy
As Iraqis grope their way toward a representative government, with all the bargaining and horse-trading that entails, poor little Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be a colony administered by the European Union’s Proconsul, High Representative and EU Special Representative Paddy Ashdown.
Proconsul Paddy has absolute power:
“I decided to require Dragan Covic to step down from his position in the presidency with immediate effect,” Mr Ashdown told reporters in Sarajevo.
Although Bosnia and Herzegovina has a fairly healthy currency and financial sector, it’s hard to tell what progress has been made in achieving self-sufficiency, without infusions of EU and US aid. I suspect that, although World Bank data show per capita aid declining from 1999 to 2002, the country is not likely to get free of dependence on foreign assistance, especially considering how unsuccessful they have been at achieving independence from direct foreign political control.
Unless the EU backs off tremendously, Bosnia and Herzegovina won’t become economically self-sufficient. And if that doesn’t happen, it doesn’t look like self-government will happen any time soon.
Uhhh?
– “unless the EU backs off tremendously…”… like leaving BH entirely? that would be the worst mistake in terms of strategy leaving open doors to: 1) more mafia…more corruption 2) Al Qaeda.
– “Bosnia and Herzegovina won’t become economically self-sufficient. And if that doesn’t happen, it doesn’t look like self-government will happen any time soon.”
That’s circular logic, or dare I say, even worse: paralogism. The rule of law has to be imposed and THEN self-government (which de jure already exists) will take over completely.) That’s P. Ashdown’s job. It’s a dirty job, but someone’s got to do it.
NV
The interesting questions, it seems to me, is how well you can simply establish the rule of law when so many decisions are being made by an imposed ruler who is completely unaccountable to anyone in the country. Right now such a large portion of BiH’s income comes in the form of EU and US aid (and all the little bits that come with it, such as hotel bills for foreign aid workers) and so little has been done to facilitate economic production and exchange. It seems unlikely to me that the people and the various groups of BiH will come to a constitutional consensus if all decisions are ultimately made by a foreigner with a foreign army to back it up. When the High Representative designs the license plates and the driving licenses, what kind of self-government are they exercising? Many of the region’s problems were made worse by the insistence of the great powers on keeping Yugoslavia together (which then led to a horrifying genocidal war) and then on keeping BiH together (which led to another series of horrifying smaller wars). It’s been a rather long time since we were told what a short time troops would be there. What progress has actually been made toward withdrawal of foreign forces? Very little.
I suppose that the issue is whethe the rule of law can be very easily “imposed.” It can, but not very easily. The record is not especially hopeful in that regard. Better for it to grow, and it tends to grow when people have to work out solutions for themselves, without being subject to the arbitrary rule of one not-especially-clever-but-definitely-very-full-of-himself British politician. A process of withdrawal of military support and of foreign aid would put the people of BiH on a better path toward sorting out their difficulties, growing the rule of law, and creating wealth.