Will Uzbekistan Be the Next Authoritarian Post-Soviet State to Fall?

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Is it “Islamic extremism” or a demand for free enterprise and religious freedom, that is threatening to the regime of Islam Karimov? The BBC’s timeline for the violence in Andijan. Registan.net has regular updates from the region.

7 Responses to “Will Uzbekistan Be the Next Authoritarian Post-Soviet State to Fall?”

  1. David T. Beito

    Perhaps this regime would have fallen long ago had it not receieved U.S. aid and, of course, the legitimacy provided by U.S. troops. The Bush administration has a lot to answer for, as do the conservatives who have turned a blind eye to this situation over the past few years.

    May 20, 2005 at 9:38 am
  2. Tom G. Palmer

    Amen. (I wonder how much legitimacy the troops provided, but they have certainly provided foreign exchange.) Let’s hope that what replaces it will be (at least relatively) liberal and tolerant and not pushed into the radical Islamist camp by the efforts of the Karimov regime. I note that one of the least reliable observers of the international scene has referred to the opposition as “Uzbekistan’s free-market revolutionaries.” That may be true of some, but it’s rather early to characterize events in such a manner, especially by someone with no knowledge of the area or of any of the languages spoken there and no contacts in the region.

    May 20, 2005 at 9:41 am
  3. Nathan

    The government would be chugging along like this either way. The US aid is so negligible (and there is no direct, monetary aid to the government right now) as to have no appreciable impact on the strength of the Uzbek government. And legitimacy is something that I think lives largely in the minds of bureaucrats and foreign commentators. I’ve never gotten the impression from Uzbeks that the base adds legitimacy. Prestige maybe, but not legitimacy.

    Oddly enough, Karimov gains plenty of legitimacy among his population by providing stability and security. I’m not saying he’s well-liked. In fact, people abhor him in many ways. Many of those same people still are afraid to see him go.

    While he did provide some stability and softened the economic fall, he looks to be reaching the point at which his usefulness runs out and his policies start generating more instability than stability. And I’m afraid it’s going to get quite nasty before all is said and done.

    The two people I’ve heard mentioned as well-positioned to take over are the heads of the secret police and interior ministry. Both are well-armed and don’t like each other. I hope for better, but I fear the worst.

    May 20, 2005 at 10:14 am
  5. Nathan

    Not free market, but ability to have a market. Literally. New economic policies have made bazaar trade nearly impossible for individual traders, meaning that many have lost their only source of income. The government has been on this course (for some understandable and sensible reasons I must admit) since 2002.

    Check out some of the State Dept reports on aid to see where it’s going though. Yes, it’s about $1bn since 1992, but most of the aid does not actually go to the government of Uzbekistan itself. State breaks it down in their reports, but that rarely makes it into reporting and kind of muddies the water.

    May 20, 2005 at 1:35 pm